Software development velocity that is based upon repeatable patterns with no volatility in the process or the environment and is judged to be successful is a false conclusion in today’s rapidly changing world. To have truly successful velocity that is continuously increasing it must be antifragile (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifragility). It must be able to absorb change of any sort and continuously increase. If every time there is a variation or speed bump in the path and velocity suffers then that velocity is fragile and at risk, and is therefore not successful. To think otherwise is just setting yourself up for a rude awakening.